What Are The Chances That Bitcoin Will Ever See $20,000 Again?

Most Bitcoin price predictions by technical and on-chain analysts on Crypto Twitter are pointing towards further price discovery beyond $41000 and top on-chain analyst Willy Woo commented on this debate in a twitter thread arguing that BTC may never ever see the $20k price range again, as it currently settles above the $40k level.

Source: Twitter

30% is the maximum projected pull back once BTC tops, an estimation that is also changing fast. Woo predicted this outcome based on investment inflow and Bitcoin’s latest price action, however, there may be a possibility that the price drops to $20000 again. Ever since price discovery started above $35000, there is speculation and anticipation of an inevitable correction in price. 

On-chain analysis data does not exactly signal a drop, but debates on Crypto Twitter never fail to amuse retail traders. During this price rally, while the number of unique addresses actively trading Bitcoin went up, the number of whales also went up. Based on data from bitinfo charts, there are over 6000 addresses holding more than $10 Million in Bitcoin and this is a nearly 4 times increase from December 2017 when there were 2000+ addresses that identified as Bitcoin whales.

Even if 5% of these addresses were to sell their holdings and start booking profits at the current price level, if not cascading, there may be a sell-off and the current market order on spot exchanges may be the tip of the iceberg. The sell-off may lead to a revisit of the 2018 market crash for Bitcoin.

It is interesting to see that institutional investors are not ready to sell since the price has more than doubled since $20000, however, what is the threshold? Or is there one?

When will institutional investors start selling? If 100% is close enough to their target, assuming that most of the buying occurred in the range starting at $20000, there may be a correction, and a drop of over 25% would push the price closer to the $30000 range. The price is currently at the $39755 level based on data from CoinMarketCap and if the price never sees $20000 again, this would be a similar situation as the 2013 bull run, and that indicates that there is further room for price discovery beyond the current ATH.